Metro Manila Waterworld: Tracing the Flood Origins

Floods in the Philippines

Water is vital for life. It is the substance that makes life possible here on Earth. Here in the Philippines, we take pride in being a “water” country. With us being an archipelago, the main livelihood of our countrymen lies with water. Yet the same water that brings us the most pristine beaches and the best diving spots also brings us death and destruction. Every year when the monsoon season begins, we are bombarded with storms and floods. In this article, we would model flooding as a simple engineering equation that would explain it.

Typhoon Schematic

To solve a problem, we must know the problem. The root of all flood problems is the typhoon. Now, we look into the anatomy of a typhoon. “It forms when warm air rises and creates a low pressure area below it. This low pressure area then sucks in more warm air, creates a swirling effect and intensifies the typhoon. This picks up water as it passes along the oceans. In short, warm air fuels it. And the current global warming would be the culprit for the more intense typhoons hitting us.”This phenomenon brings in more rain than previously experienced. But it turns out that global warming is not the only reason for flooding in the Philippines. More issues come out and they compound one over the other. Here we present Murphy’s Law.

• Flooding can be seen as physical manifestation of MURPHY’s Law in Effect = “anything that can go wrong will go wrong”
• This states that one thing will aggravate the next, case in point:
• an informal settler will go to the riverside in Marikina
• he will dump wastes which will slow the water flow
• slower water flow means
• Clogged drainage and
• More waste will accumulate
• Up to a point that water can’t flow and even the river itself contributes to the flooding
• Then a politician refuses to do anything about the situation
• and a typhoon comes along ( IN SHORT PATONG PATONG NA SILA)

How much does typhoon and flooding cost the Philippines?

1. The cost of typhoons per year in the Philippines
• According to DPWH Sec. Rogelio Singson, the economy loses $160 Million or 7 Billion PhP due to the 20 or so typhoons that visit the country every year.
• Mary Ann Lucille Sering, head of the Philippine government's climate change commission said that Typhoon-related costs in 2009, the year the commission was created, amounted to 2.9% of GDP and have been rising each year since then
2. The current plans and budget of DPWH:
• The DPWH identified 11 long-term projects in its P351.7 billion flood-risk management master plan for Metro Manila and nearby areas that was completed last year.
• Pasig-Marikina River improvement and dam construction project of P198.4 billion,
• The Manila Core Area drainage improvement program with P27.2 billion budget.
• P50 billion budget East Mangahan Floodway project, which covers Cainta and Taytay River improvement; and the West Laguna Lakeshore land raising project.
• The Malabon-Tullahan River improvement, on the other hand, will get P21.6 billion budget 
• P17.3 billion for South Parañaque-Las Piñas River improvement.
• The other projects are Meycauayan River improvement (P14 billion);
• Valenzuela-Obando-Meycauayan Improvement (P8.6 billion); 
• Land Raising for Small Cities around Laguna Lakeshore (P7.1 billion), 
• West Mangahan Area Drainage Improvement (P5.5 billion), 

Improvement of the Inflow Rivers to Laguna Lake (P637 million).These values for budget are MIND BLOWING! But how real these quotes are, if the project is justifiable (because there may be cheaper ingenious, resourceful alternatives and most importantly implementation of discipline, orderliness through strong political will) and the assurance that a 100% of these stated budget will go into the projects WE DON’T KNOW.

Now that we understand the problem, we try to solve it using a basic Flooding Formula :

1. Floods are caused by rainwater trying to find a lower settling spot, in most of the case, the sea.
2. As a steady state steady flow phenomenon, flooding can be simply and accurately modeled by the following Equation

Flood=Water In-Water Out+Obstacles to Flow-Suction of Flood

Flooding should also be viewed with a volume - time perspective, so all units in our equation are in m^3 / s.

This changes flooding from a static water mass to more of a flow rate that it really is.

Now, Let’s try applying this to the most infamous flood of recent history – Ondoy

First, we define our parameters:

• Control Area = Metro Manila 
• Land Area of Metro Manila =638.6 km² (** Will be much greater if we consider water from the nearby provinces and Sierra Madre Mountains )

Water In

Let’s take a look at the Infamous Typhoon Ondoy,

• Ondoy’s onslaught dumped 455 mm of rain over a 24-hour period. 
• But 341 mm fell in just six hours

Computing for the Volumetric Flow Rate of Rain Water

=638,600,000 m^2 (Area of NCR )*.455m ( average height of rain) * (1day / 24 hours) (from 1 day converting to seconds)/(1hour / 3600sec ) = 3362.99 m^3/s – water in

This is the rough computation from us here in Stain on Paper, we also found a more thorough study on this from a UP professor and we decide to use his value of 5000 m^3 /s. His more thorough and scientific study found here.

http://www.slideshare.net/leony1948/2011-liongsonmodeling-studies-flood-control-damsprofessorial-chair-lecture

Water Out

Water Out from Metro Manila has 2 major routes

1. To Manila Bay -> Pasig River approximate value is around 410 cubic meters.
2. To Laguna de Bay -> We consider this, since it accommodates majority of the water flow from Metro Manila and the nearby provinces. By design, it has the Manggahan Floodway is capable of handling 2,400 cubic meters per second of water flow, but the actual is close to 2000 cubic meters.

“ Fact: During the height of the storm, the Marikina River had a flow of about 3000 m³/s (106,000 ft³/s), and the head of the UP National Hydraulic Research Center stated that the floodway could have handled this flow without overflowing if there were no settlers on its banks.”

Obstacles to Flow

There are many obstacles to flow but most noticeable and important would be clogging due to garbage. 

Average Trash per Person in Manila = .7kg> .3kg average in the world

We here in Manila are highly Urbanized, overpopulated yet our garbage collection system is lagging.

“It is thought that blocked pipes and a poor sewer system, along with uncollected domestic waste, were major factors in the speed with which the flood waters were able to engulf the surrounding area.“

Demographics of our Trash

Number of Informal Settlers in Manila is estimated to be at 520,000 families, estimated that each family is to have 6 members, then we have roughly 3-4Million informal settlers in Manila.

Estimated trash per person is .7kg, converted to volume is roughly .07m^3

Estimating that each family throws wastes into the river or dump, that would be a deterrent of around 210,000m^2 of flow area. This figure translates into worse floods. But we believe that trash has a “cumulative” / percentage effect on flooding.

An accurate figure that can model the effect of garbage would be the Manggahan Floodway. It is capable of handling 2,400 cubic meters per second of water flow, but the actual is close to 2000 cubic meters. The primary reason for this would be garbage. Trash decreases flow rate by around -18%. – we would use 18% as a correction factor that slows water down.

Suction of Flood

Not all is bad thought, nature and our main ally in the battle for flooding is the tree.

How much water can a tree hold?

• One large tree can lift up to 100 gallons of water out of the ground and discharge it into the air in a day. That’s only 0.00030299 m^3

Number of trees in Manila can be approximated to 1 person = 60 trees, but since we live in a city, we can safely use half of that so 1 person = 30 trees.

And NCR has 12 million people, so that’s about 108000 m^3 per day of flow rate sucked in,
Changing it to m^3 / s that’s only around 1.25m^3 / s (NEGLIGIBLE, very small value)

As we can see, it is easier to block the flow of water rather than suck it out.

*** Another thing to note that will help in the suction of floods are pumping stations, these mechanical marvels are supposed to remove flooding altogether, unfortunately, most if not all of the 52 pumping stations in manila are

1. in need of dire rehab 
2. No fuel to operate the generators
3. Stocked up themselves

We don’t consider these since they are missing in action last Ondoy.

Substituting Values To Our Governing Equation

Flood=(Water In)-(Water Out)+(Obstacles to Flow)-(Suction of Flood)

Flood=5000 from study (water dumped by Ondoy) – 2000 (water carried by Manggahan floodway) – 410 (water carried away from Pasig River) + .18(3362.3) (effect of trash on the flow rate of the 2 rivers) -1.25 (trees sucking in water)

Flood = 3193.964m^3 /s

This figure represent the excess of the flow that can’t be carried away or pumped out. This is a big number if you would ask us. Hence, this explain the flooding of Marikina during Ondoy.

~quod erat demonstrandum (the conclusion of the demonstration)

But wait there’s more..

Enter, the BLAME GAMES!

Some frequently overheard dialogues

• From a tricycle driver in Recto: “Umuulan na, takpan niyo nang plastic ang imburnal para bumaha at dumami pasahero.”

• From a city engineer and or well-meaning politician in Espana  : “ Taasan mo nalang ang kalsada, para lumipat sa iba ang baha. Sila na bahala diyan, kaya na nila yan”

• From a street kid in Quiapo: “Sana tumaas pa ang baha, para makapag Olympic diving kami sa Quaipo underpass”

• From students in U belt : “ Yehey!! No classes!! DOTA NA!! teka teka, e brownout e..” 

• From a TV personality to his Dancer girlfriend : “ Ang lamig, ang dilim, tawagan ko nga ang maganda kong girlfriend para gumawa kami ng “music video” hihi.

• From an evacuee in Marikina : “At least sa evacuation center may relief goods at sopas, plus may libreng damit at pagkain pa, plus ma T-TV pa ako hehe”

• From a wealthy person in White Plains : “ Really now? It’s raining hard and flooding deep? I’m warm and safe here in my house. YAYA bring in more firewood! ”

• From a Chinese relief goods businessman in 168 : “Akin payong ikaw bili;  di ikaw basa yan, ako bigay pa sa iyo libre kapote wag na ikaw tawad ok?.”

• From a high profile government convict:“ It’s raining and flooding!! Another excuse to delay my hearing hehe.”

References:

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/244837/tuesday-rains-surpass-ondoys-2009-rainfall-pagasa#ixzz2fLQqWqv4 

http://flood.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/ihp_rsc/riverCatalogue/Vol_05/9_Philippines-4.pdf

http://cids.up.edu.ph/chronicle/articles/chronv4n1and2/infocus16nantes_pg1.html

http://web.mit.edu/16.unified/www/FALL/thermodynamics/thermo_6.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manggahan_Floodway

http://www.tempo.com.ph/2013/07/old-problem/

http://manilastandardtoday.com/2013/06/30/typhoons-cost-160m-a-year/

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/feb/17/filipino-super-typhoon-climate-change

http://www.dti.gov.ph/dti/index.php?p=321

http://www.nscb.gov.ph/secstat/d_income.asp

http://www.pinoymoneytalk.com/philippines-city-per-capita-income/

http://www.journals.upd.edu.ph/index.php/socialsciencediliman/article/.../7‎

http://www.greenprophet.com/2013/01/5-reasons-to-be-grateful-for-trees-on-tu-bshevat/

http://journeytotheplasticocean.wordpress.com/2012/09/03/the-great-hk-garbage-patch/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Philippines_flooding

How will the Philippines brace itself for One ASEAN 2015?

The Philippines is experiencing a construction boom. With a 7% growth in our economy more and more of our citizens are finding it easier to afford a place to call their own. The towering commercial and residential high rises in Makati, Taguig, Ortigas, Libis, Cubao CBDs are a picture of a robust and growing economy.

The outlying areas of Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, and Pampanga are also on the rise as more and more residential communities are being developed. Major property developers like Ayala land, Robinsons land, Megaworld, SM land, Rockwell Land, Federal Land, Eton Properties, Century Properties, etc. are aggressively focused on community development, integrating and consolidating residential properties with commercial spaces to create a one-stop shop for their buyers. 

According business circles, aside from our strong growth, these developers are bracing themselves for the 2015 ASEAN integration. Some Businessmen and politicians are pushing for policies to make the Philippines a part of this.

What is the One ASEAN Economic Community?

The One ASEAN Economic Community is a program the Asean leaders adopted. The AEC Blueprint was agreed upon on November 2007, with the vision to “establish by 2015 a highly competitive single market and production base for its ten member economies, that promotes their equitable economic development and facilitates their integration with the global community.”

What are the PROS?

The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) will open FREE TRADE within its member countries. Free Trade means taxes and tariffs on import and export products will have prices based solely on the law of supply and demand, these taxes and tariffs will not affect the prices of the goods traded.

With AEC, professionals will be in high demand in our neighboring countries because of our outstanding work ethic and our ability to speak English. Professional Engineers, nurses etc. will have greater career opportunities in these nations. 

This common market will attract investors into the region. With the AEC’s growth of 5.4% (greater that India’s 4%) foreign investors will be coming in droves to be able to part of the action. Investments from other countries will drive our local economy, better economy, better internal development (infrastructure and services) (but if corruption remains well…)

Finally for all our Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), their customer reach has just reached a whopping 600 Million! With the ability to franchise and expand their business system, our SMEs have an amazing room for growth and profitability.

What are the CONS?

With the troubled economies around, our own growth may be delayed due to the fact that our own market will have to support these other markets. Indonesia’s current state is a major question. Will this be a repeat of the European Union Crisis? (our difference is, in AEC there will be no common currency)

Prices of land here in our country, could possibly rise to 300%, if congress creates laws that will  allow foreign companies to purchase land here. Even our local banks BDO and BPI are unsure of what will be the effect on their business once the banks from these countries are allowed here. So the capability of our local banks to provide loans is still in unsure.

How will our local agriculture cope with the flooding of very cheap produce from our neighboring countries? We’ve seen the current state of local agriculture. The plight of our local farmers and the control of big farm land to a few have prevented us from fully realizing the full potential of our agriculture.

Finally our underdeveloped domestic businesses, manufacturing industry, and labor sector may not be ready for this integration with these industries far cheaper in our neighboring countries. With cheap labor surplus in these other AEC countries, has our own government prepared for the effects? What are their policies and contingencies for this event?

In a nutshell:

PROS	CONS
Free flow of goods, services, capital, investment, and skilled labour (FREE TRADE)	Our still growing  market economy will have to support troubled economies like Indonesia’s and other poor ASEAN economies (a possible repeat of the European UNION Crisis?) (http://www.mangunonmarkets.com/)
Better career opportunities for professional level citizens (especially for professional engineers)	Prices of land (properties in general) here in the Philippines is expected to grow by as much as 300%
Create a common market for foreign investors to invest in	our AGRICULTURAL SECTOR will greatly lose out on cheaper produce from our ASEAN neighbors (another blog to be discussed here on Stainonpaper)
More opportunities for Small and Medium Enterprises to venture abroad and cater to 600 MILLION customers	our UNDERDEVELOPED domestic businesses, manufacturing industry and labor sector might not be ready to compete (another blog to be discussed here on stainonpaper)

Do you think our country is ready for this?

Is the Philippine Flag Pole Project really worth 7.86 Million Pesos?

7.8 million pesos for a flag pole? This has been the outrageous question that netizens have been asking since the project was discovered during the Million People March last August 26. News reports and social media have been in disbelief due to the cost of this project. As engineers ourselves we had to ask ourselves if this price is realistic or not. Our first article will be to provide the logical facts about this project. Comments are greatly encouraged.

First is the back story of this project. This flag pole project is part of the “Beautification of Rizal Park” project proposed back in 2011. Under this project would include the following

1.)    Senior Citizen’s Garden

2.)    Restoration of Pedestrian Lanes

3.)    Restoration of Auditorium

This project is done purposely to commemorate the 150^th death anniversary of our national Hero Dr. Jose Rizal, namesake of the park itself. And as such, the old 105 ft flagpole was changed to a 150 ft one. 150^th anniversary, 150 ft. We just wonder if it will ever reach a thousand feet?

Going to the engineering part, we would show  how is a typical flagpole set up.

Why does it cost so much?!

First of all, every structure must be able to withstand every kind of force acting on it. In the case of flag poles, wind load factors in the most. According to the wind profile power law, as altitude increases, wind speed increases.

Below is a sample wind profile of the Philippines when experiencing “severely extreme” wind speeds.

Side note:

By the way, how high is 150 ft?

This means that the National Flag Pole will have to resist a great amount of force. The situation calls for sturdier components and some engineering.

To summarize,

Therefore, the taller the flagpole, the more costly it becomes.

How much does it cost to purchase and construct?

So here are our initial assumptions. Do you think the project is overpriced?

But wait, there’s more!!

Apparently, the winner of the contract, AKH construction and IBANAG HERITAGE FOUNDATION ( NGO headed by VP Jejomar Binay and Senator Enrile ) have the same contact numbers. They must be sharing the same landline. Plus the head of AKH construction is also an officer and board of trustee of the said NGO. What does this mean? Only one thing for sure. Kudos to our Vice President and Senator for supporting all BIG TICKET projects.

~quod erat demonstrandum (the conclusion of the demonstration)

References:

http://www.usflag.com/our-products-2/flagpoles/monster-flagpoles/

http://www.american-flag-superstore.com/150-Ft-MegaBig-Flagpole-Steel-150ftflagpole.htm

http://www.flagpolesetc.com/flagpoles/colossal-flagpoles.html

http://www.americanflagstore.com/media/wysiwyg/flagpolepartsdiagram.jpg

http://www.concordindustries.com/

httpwww.stadtentwicklung.berlin.deumweltumweltatlase_abbea403e01.gif

www.deq.mt.gov/energy/wind_atlas/atlas/pdf/Chapter5.PDF

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/researchNDRB.html

http://www.modernsteel.com/Uploads/Issues/July_2007/30767_flagpole_web.pdf